It’s been said that the four most dangerous words for investors are “this time it’s different.”  If you’re not familiar with the saying, let me provide an example.  In 1999, with the S&P 500 selling at 29x earnings, the … Continue reading →

      When I was a pre-schooler . . .  Actually, let me start over.  When I was around five years old (there were no “pre-schools” in those days, and my mother didn’t believe in kindergarten, but somehow I managed to … Continue reading →

      With renewed talk in the financial press about the possibility that the trade “war” between the U.S. and China is leading to a recession, where do my Leading Indicators stand?  At the moment, they are at 14, with 0 … Continue reading →

Thanks to everyone who participated in our Market Jeopardy! contest.  Since no one correctly guessed both of my answers to the question “what caused the large market decline at the end of last year?”, I’ve been forced to grade on … Continue reading →

       The 4th quarter saw the S&P 500 drop (20.2%) from its peak on 9/24 to the bottom on 12/26.  Though Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist Jeff Saut had expected some softness in the fall, a decline of this magnitude, … Continue reading →

For the past few years, I’ve made many references, both in conversation and in print[1], to various “leading indicators” that I use to assess the probability of an impending recession and concurrent market downturn.  I’ve spotlighted charts on a number … Continue reading →

After my religion period, I took up with a swindler: Allardyce Meriweather. Jack Crabbe, Little Big Man I promise the immortal Meriweather may have something to do with the market.  Just have patience. Allardyce Meriweather is a character in Thomas … Continue reading →

Back in January, I posted a piece entitled The Next Bear Market.  In it, I opined that we are in a “secular bull market,”[1] but that another recession is inevitable – though probably a few years away – and now is … Continue reading →

Thanks for the Bull Market, CNBC! As many of you know, I have been a long-time critic of the various television business networks.  While they purport to provide viewers with usable information about business and investment markets, their true mission … Continue reading →

I pay almost no attention to boxing anymore, but back in the day when I eagerly awaited every epic battle between Ali and Frazier or Leonard and Duran, there was always a pre-fight analysis called the “tale of the tape.”  … Continue reading →